Moderate Growth Expected for Oahu Real Estate Market in 2024

What Happened in the Oahu Real Estate Market in December 2023?

“We’re encouraged to see mortgage rates continue to fall from their peak last October,” said Chief Operating Officer for Locations Chad Takesue. “As rates head lower and affordability improves for buyers, we can expect to see more home sales this year.”

Takesue noted that low inventory remains a limiting factor, however. With about three months of inventory currently available, Oahu is still a sellers’ market. Low housing supply, combined with strong demand from local and offshore buyers, continues to fuel competitive market conditions.

At the local level, the number of homes for sale in town has increased by about 40 percent, with the exception of the Kaimuki and Waialae-Kahala neighborhoods. There were also fewer homes for sale in Kailua and Mililani compared to a year ago. For-sale condo inventory is flat in Ala Moana-Kakaako and Waikiki, Oahu’s largest condo markets, and up in the Salt Lake, Makiki and Kapiolani-University neighborhoods. In West Oahu, condo inventory is mostly flat, apart from Pearl City-Aiea, where inventory increased by 50 percent.

“The Oahu real estate market is positioned for moderate growth this year, as lower mortgage interest rates offer improved affordability for homebuyers,” said Takesue. “After putting their plans on hold last year, many buyers and sellers have now adjusted to the market’s ‘new normal,’ and are ready to move ahead with a home purchase or sale this year. Buyers can look forward to more homes for sale this spring, too, as sellers may be more inclined to list their homes this year.”

Key Takeaways from the December 2023 Locations Oahu Real Estate Report

New to real estate market data terms? See our glossary.

• The December 2023 median single-family home price of $1M is five percent below last year, while the median condo price of $510,000 is two percent higher than a year ago. Flat-to-slightly rising price trends are expected to continue in 2024. 
• Home sales fell by 13 percent in December, and condo sales were down 25 percent. Sales trends are settling into typical seasonal patterns, ending the year at about 28 percent lower and setting the stage for growth in 2024. 
• 635 homes and 1,300 condos were available for sale at the end of December 2023—essentially flat for homes and six percent higher for condos compared to the previous year. Inventory increased slightly in the last half of 2023 but remains at historically low levels. 
• The year ended with 2.9 Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) for homes and 3.4 Months of Remaining Inventory for condos. This measure moved upward in 2023 due to lower sales and rising inventory; however, MRI is still firmly in sellers' market territory, underscoring Oahu’s low supply and strong demand. 
• Single-family homes were on the market for a median of 17 days in December, while condos were listed for a median of 27 days. 
• The market remains competitive, with 27.6% of homes and 18.5% of condos sold for above the list price in December—about even with last year’s downward trend.

What Happened in Oahu Single-Family Home Markets in December 2023?

Market statistics can vary greatly by neighborhood, so it's important to consult a knowledgeable Realtor who has access to market-level data.

Here's a detailed breakdown of key Oahu single-family home market areas: 

West Honolulu Homes

Sales in West Honolulu dropped by 31% compared to the previous year, with a 7% decrease in median prices, settling at $977,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 35% to 18 days, reflecting a slower sales pace. However, active listings increased by 15%, showcasing more inventory availability.

Nuuanu-Makiki Homes

The Nuuanu-Makiki housing market saw a decline in sales by 26%, with a 9% decrease in median prices to $1,175,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 29%, and the Bid-Up percentage decreased by 25%, indicating less competitive buying scenarios. Active listings rose notably by 50%.

Manoa Homes

In December 2023, Manoa experienced a significant 31% decline in home sales compared to the previous year. The median price of homes also decreased by 7% to $1,505,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 19% to 16 days, suggesting a slightly longer period for properties to sell. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 32%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Notably, Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 113%, suggesting more opportunities in this market area. Active listings increased by 46%, providing more options for potential buyers in Manoa.

Kaimuki Homes

December 2023 saw a 34% decline in home sales compared to the previous year in Kaimuki. The median price dropped by 8% to $1,200,000. Interestingly, Days on Market (DOM) remained unchanged at 14 days, indicating a stable selling pace. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 14%, showcasing a slightly less competitive market environment. Active listings decreased by 16%, limiting available options for buyers in Kaimuki.

Waialae-Kahala Homes

In December 2023, Waialae-Kahala experienced a 26% decrease in home sales compared to the previous year, accompanied by a minor 2% decrease in the median price, settling at $2,400,000. Notably, Days on Market (DOM) doubled to 30 days, indicating a slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage plummeted by 53%, suggesting significantly reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) dropped by 7%, indicating a more balanced market. Active listings also decreased by 21%, resulting in a reduced inventory of available homes in Waialae-Kahala.

East Oahu Homes

December 2023 saw a 26% decline in home sales in East Oahu compared to the previous year. The median price also decreased by 5% to $1,705,000. Remarkably, Days on Market (DOM) remained unchanged at 14 days, indicating a consistent selling pace. The Bid-Up percentage increased by 8%, suggesting a slightly more competitive market environment. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) also rose by 88%, and active listings surged by 39%, offering more choices for buyers in East Oahu.

Hawaii Kai Homes

In December 2023, Hawaii Kai experienced a 26% decrease in home sales compared to the previous year, with a 7% decrease in the median price, settling at $1,510,000. Notably, Days on Market (DOM) increased to 17 days, reflecting a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped significantly by 45%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) fell by 75%, while active listings decreased by 22%, leading to a reduced inventory of available homes in this area.

Kailua Homes

In December 2023, Kailua witnessed a 22% decrease in home sales compared to the previous year, with a slight 2% increase in the median price to $1,625,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 23% to 16 days, indicating a slightly longer time for properties to sell. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 34%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) dropped by 7%, while active listings decreased by 27%—leading to a reduced inventory of available homes in Kailua.

Kaneohe Homes

Kaneohe experienced a 17% decline in home sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, accompanied by a 5% decrease in the median price to $1,187,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 14 days, indicating a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped notably by 35%, suggesting reduced competition among buyers.  Active listings increased by 6%, providing slightly more options for potential buyers in Kaneohe.

North Shore Homes

December 2023 witnessed a substantial 40% decline in home sales in the North Shore area compared to the previous year, accompanied by an 11% decrease in the median price, settling at $1,555,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 27 days, suggesting a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 11%, signaling slightly reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 55%, even as active listings dropped slightly by 6%.

Leeward Homes

In December 2023, Leeward experienced a 16% decline in home sales compared to the previous year, with a 6% decrease in the median price to $675,000. Remarkably, Days on Market (DOM) surged to 38 days, indicating a longer time for properties to sell. The Bid-Up percentage decreased significantly by 44%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Active listings increased by 17%.

Ewa Homes

Ewa witnessed a significant 32% decline in home sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, accompanied by a 4% decrease in the median price to $885,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 31 days, suggesting a longer time for properties to sell. The Bid-Up percentage decreased significantly by 45%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) decreased by 18%, and active listings decreased by 20%.

Makakilo Homes

In December 2023, Makakilo experienced a 36% decrease in home sales compared to the previous year, with a 3% increase in the median price to $1,020,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 24 days, indicating a slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased significantly by 48%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 41%, suggesting more options for buyers than a year ago. Active listings remained relatively stable.

Waipahu Homes

Waipahu saw a 24% decline in home sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, accompanied by a 3% decrease in the median price to $921,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 21 days, suggesting a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased notably by 43%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) decreased by 23%, while active listings decreased slightly by 7%.

Mililani Homes

Mililani experienced a 32% decline in home sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with a 2% decrease in the median price to $1,067,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 17 days, indicating a slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased significantly by 41%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) decreased by 17%, as active listings dropped by 44%.

Pearl City-Aiea Homes

Pearl City-Aiea witnessed a 14% decline in home sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, accompanied by a 7% decrease in the median price to $975,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased to 16 days, suggesting a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 37%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 5%, and active listings decreased by 10%.

What Happened in Oahu Condo Markets in December 2023?

Here's a detailed breakdown of key Oahu condo market areas: 

Salt Lake Condos

In December 2023, Salt Lake experienced a notable 36% decline in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices holding steady at $442,500. Days on Market (DOM) dropped by 10% to 14 days, signifying a slightly faster pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 32%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) rose by 124%, as active listings increased by 44%.

Downtown-Nuuanu Condos

Downtown-Nuuanu witnessed a 36% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices holding at $409,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased notably by 60% to 24 days, indicating a slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased significantly by 57%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 36%, while active listings decreased by 13%.

Ala Moana-Kakaako Condos

Ala Moana-Kakaako experienced a 24% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, accompanied by a 5% decrease in median prices to $740,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 36% to 32 days, suggesting a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 36%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 32% while active listings remained stable.

Makiki Condos

In December 2023, Makiki saw a 31% decline in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices remaining steady at $390,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 33% to 20 days, indicating a slightly slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 37%, signaling reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 97%, as active listings increased by 36%.

Waikiki Condos

Waikiki experienced a 16% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices remaining at $426,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 40% to 28 days, suggesting a slower pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 32%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 19%, while active listings decreased slightly by 1%.

Kapiolani-University Condos

In December 2023, Kapiolani-University experienced a significant 38% decrease in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly declining by 1% to $417,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 13% to 17 days, indicating a slightly longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped by 31%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased notably by 145%, and active listings surged by 52%.

Diamond Head-Kahala Condos

Diamond Head-Kahala witnessed a 39% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year and an 8% increase in median prices to $680,000. Days on Market (DOM) decreased by 22% to 14 days, signaling a faster pace in property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped by 37%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 57%, while active listings experienced a slight decrease of 4%.

Hawaii Kai Condos

Hawaii Kai experienced a 27% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly rising by 2% to $849,500. Days on Market (DOM) increased significantly by 88% to 23 days, indicating a longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped by 53%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) decreased by 24%, and active listings declined notably by 45%.

Kailua Condos

In December 2023, Kailua observed no change in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices remaining stable at $759,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased notably by 62% to 17 days, signaling a longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 44%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased significantly by 80%. Active listings also increased by 80%.

Kaneohe Condos

Kaneohe experienced a substantial 36% decline in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly decreasing by 4% to $680,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 36% to 15 days, indicating a moderately longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 39%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 55%, as active listings remained stable.

Leeward Condos

In December 2023, Leeward saw a notable 35% decrease in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices remaining stable at $249,500. Days on Market (DOM) surged by 142% to 29 days, signifying a significantly longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped by 25%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) rose significantly by 123%, and active listings increased by 45%.

Ewa Condos

Ewa experienced a 35% decline in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly dropping by 1% to $678,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased notably by 80% to 18 days, indicating a longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 45%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 64%, and active listings increased slightly by 7%.

Makakilo Condos

Makakilo witnessed a 33% decrease in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly dropping by 1% to $549,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 82% to 20 days, indicating a moderately longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 35%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 27%, while active listings decreased by 15%.

Waipahu Condos

In December 2023, Waipahu observed a 27% decline in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly decreasing by 2% to $500,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 62% to 17 days, indicating a longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 35%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 36%, as active listings remained stable.

Mililani Condos

Mililani experienced a 25% decrease in condo sales in December 2023 compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly dropping by 4% to $510,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 50% to 15 days, indicating a moderately longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage decreased by 32%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) increased by 48%, as active listings increased by 11%.

Pearl City-Aiea Condos

Pearl City-Aiea saw a 36% decline in condo sales compared to the previous year, with median prices slightly decreasing by 2% to $465,000. Days on Market (DOM) increased by 32% to 15 days, indicating a slightly longer period for property sales. The Bid-Up percentage dropped by 28%, indicating reduced competition among buyers. Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI) surged significantly by 136%. Active listings increased notably by 50%.

Summary

Because real estate market conditions can vary greatly among Oahu market areas, it's important for buyers and sellers to partner with a Realtor who has access to detailed, neighborhood-level data.

Glossary

• Active Listings: Count of MLS listings with "Active" status on the last day of the period. 
• Bid-Up %: The percent of sales that were bid-up over asking price in competitive offers. 
• Days on Market (DOM): Median number of days between listing date and escrow date, for all properties sold in the period. 
• Months of Remaining Inventory (MRI): The number of months it would take to sell out the current active inventory at the recent rate of sales. A balance point between supply and demand is considered to be around 6 months, so MRI below 6 months indicates more of a sellers market and MRI above 6 months indicates more of a buyers market.

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