How Does a Republican President Affect Home Prices?

As Donald Trump enters office as the 45th President of the United States, many have asked "what impact will Donald Trump have on the Oahu housing market?"  Going back to 1958, when the average price for an Oahu single family home was $23,069 and Dwight D, Eisenhower was president, we determined that Hawaii’s real estate market is not directly affected by specific presidents or political parties but rather larger economic factors that fuel consumer confidence such as interest rates, wage growth and unemployment rates.

A recent example of how a president can influence the housing market is in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. To help stimulate the housing market President Obama and his administration rolled out a homebuyer tax credit of $8,000 while new mortgage regulations were put in place by the Consumer Financial Protection agency. The result was much needed stability and stricter lending policies.

Looking forward to the next four years, it is worth noting that a significant portion of President Trump’s wealth stems from his investment in real estate, so it would be surprising if he did anything to negatively impact the housing market. While we don't know how President Trump will change tax or housing policy, we do know the immediate influence on housing market prices are interest rates, which are affected by inflation and consumer confidence. In 2017, we expect interest rates to increase to the 4.3%-4.5% range.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments.